Mobile Pathways, a national immigration advocacy group, co-founder Bart Skorupa, tells New Times that asylum is an unfair lottery generally benefiting migrants from predominantly white nations over predominantly black and brown nations. And while that's usually true for cities nationwide, few nationalities have favorable odds of gaining asylum in Miami, according to Mobile Pathways data collected over the past decade.
"You have to meet the qualifications of past or future persecution, and you have to show there's nowhere else to go in your country or the world," immigration attorney and Mobile Pathways board member Ruby Powers tells New Times. "It can appear that there's a disproportionate group that's more qualified than another."
New Times focused on nationalities with at least 30 asylum applicants in Miami over the past 10 years and assembled the 15 nationalities with the worst odds of gaining asylum in Miami.
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Nationalities with the Lowest Chances of Gaining Asylum in Miami
1. Bahamas: 97 percent denial rate (37 rejections out of 38)2. Somalia: 96 percent denial rate (51 rejections out of 53)
3. Brazil: 95 percent denial rate (999 rejections out of 1,048)
4. (tie) Haiti: 94 percent denial rate (2,431 rejections out of 2,580)
(tie) Jamaica: 94 percent denial rate (174 rejections out of 185)
6. Mexico: 93 percent denial rate (694 rejections out of 742)
(tie) Guatemala: 92 percent denial rate (6,825 rejections out of 7,390)
(tie) Dominican Republic: 92 percent denial rate (69 rejections out of 72)
(tie) India: 92 percent denial rate (60 rejections out of 65)
(tie) Peru: 90 percent denial rate (170 rejections out of 190)
(tie) Romania: 90 percent denial rate (67 rejections out of 75)
(tie) Ecuador: 90 percent denial rate (49 rejections out of 55)
13. El Salvador: 89 percent denial rate (1,831 rejections out of 2,042)
14. (tie) Honduras: 88 percent denial rate (5,489 rejections out of 6,198)
(tie) Chile: 88 percent denial rate (122 rejections out of 138)
Dozens of nations, with at least 30 asylum seekers in the past 10 years, had unfavorable odds of gaining asylum in Miami. But only four nationalities, with at least 30 asylum seekers, had better than a 50 percent chance of gaining asylum in Miami.
"A lot of times, after a horrible thing happens, they flee to another city in their country and take whatever they can carry on their backs," Powers says, adding that a trek to the United States can be costly, and many refugees arrive with little or no money.
"They're just trying to put a roof over their heads, feed their kids, and find some way to be sustainable, and then they find out they have to go to court to get asylum," she notes. "That's the part when they come to me before their first hearing. They typically don't understand the gravity of the situation, and they're traumatized."
The interview process, conducted by United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), can bewilder migrants, partially because the federal government has an 11-year backlog of migrant interviews to conduct, Powers says.
Powers says USCIS is currently conducting interviews for migrants who filed for asylum as early as 2014.
In December 2018, the final month of Donald Trump's first presidency, the federal government began expediting interviews for asylum seekers who filed on or after December 10, 2018, Powers said. That, coupled with expedited interviews for those fleeing Afghanistan after the U.S. military withdrew its presence in February 2020 and expedited interviews for those at the southern border, postponed interviews for those who filed for asylum before December 2018, she said.
Nationalities with the Highest Chances of Gaining Asylum in Miami
1. Russia: 74 percent acceptance rate (241 approvals out of 325)2. Ukraine: 69 percent acceptance rate (39 approvals out of 57)
3. Egypt: 63 percent acceptance rate (19 approvals out of 30)
4. Vietnam: 56 percent acceptance rate (19 approvals out of 34)
According to Mobile Pathways data, Miami's data for the nationalities mentioned in both lists above appear similar to nationwide probabilities. New Times focused on nationalities with at least 1,000 asylum applicants throughout the U.S. over the past ten years.
Nationalities with the Highest Chances of Gaining Asylum in the U.S.
1. Belarus: 90 percent acceptance rate (917 approvals out of 1,013)2. Soviet Union: 89 percent acceptance rate (1,263 out of 1,406)
3. (tie) Russia: 83 percent acceptance rate (8,390 out of 10,000)
(tie) Syria: 83 percent acceptance rate (1,091 out of 1,288)
5. Afghanistan: 82 percent acceptance rate (1,155 out of 1,398)
Nationalities with the Lowest Chances of Gaining Asylum in the U.S.
1. Dominican Republic: 89 percent denial rate (1,112 rejections out of 1,250)2. Haiti: 86 percent denial rate (5,081 rejections out of 5,880)
3. Mexico: 85 percent denial rate (39,000 rejections out of 45,000)
4. Brazil: 80 percent denial rate (8,577 rejections out of 11,000)
5. Jamaica: 80 percent denial rate (985 rejections out of 1,235)
