Poland is now the Chair of the European Union. It is seeking to build a huge defence infrastructure along the Russian and Belarus borders called the ‘East Shield’.
NEW DELHI: Today, an expanded NATO appears to be less secure than the old NATO, which was set up against feared aggression from the former Soviet Union. The expected peace dividend from the Soviet disintegration and end of the Cold War has proved to be transitory. In fact, insecurity in Eastern Europe, Balkans and Scandinavia has persisted more pronouncedly for more than a decade now and specifically from the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia.
The Russia-Ukraine war initiated by Russia in 2022 was fiercely resisted by NATO under the leadership of US President Joe Biden until the Democrats’ defeat in the 2024 US presidential election and the re-entry of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025. When Trump repeatedly asserted that he would quickly end the war in Ukraine, NATO members in general and frontline NATO members, such as Poland, in particular seemed elated. And why? There was no clear-cut victor in the war, the devastation of the Ukrainian infrastructure and economy was visible to all, Russia was unable to leverage its military superiority to win the war; and significantly, Europe was reeling under deep energy crisis and its economy was spiralling down.
But the euphoria was short lived and months after assuming office the Trump administration has not yet been able to facilitate a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, let alone conclude a peace agreement. Trump’s apparent policy of arriving at a détente with Russia, taking a hard position on Ukraine and sidelining European countries in ceasefire negotiations has led to anger, frustration and rising fear in European capitals, particularly in new NATO member countries of Europe, such as Poland, Finland, Sweden and the Baltic Republics.
The Ukraine war has been responsible for abandonment of neutrality by the Scandinavian countries, demand for more NATO presence in the Baltic Republics and Poland going out of the way to bolster its defence preparedness. Poland has become the largest defence spender among NATO members in terms of defence budgets as percentage of GDP. It aspires to maintain the largest army in Europe in terms of numbers. It houses US military facilities and has served as a critical transit point of supply of Western military assistance to Ukraine.
As of today, the war in Ukraine continues, Russian attacks are hitting the headlines, Ukraine’s offensive warfare has disappeared; its defensive war suffers from lack of adequate backing from NATO members In addition, as nothing much is being reported about the state of negotiations for an early ceasefire, the Eastern Flank of NATO finds itself in a peculiar state of strategic vulnerability.
It is reflected in a recent statement by the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the country’s Parliament where he hinted that Poland would be looking for access to nuclear weapons. The Polish government had showed prompt interest earlier in French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion of an extended French nuclear deterrence over Europe. While it is debatable whether French nuclear capabilities can provide credible deterrence and whether it would be easy for Poland to acquire a nuclear weapon capability, but it certainly mirrors the perceived insecurity of Poland. It was such perceptions that had compelled Sweden and Finland to end centuries of their neutrality and embrace NATO membership.
The problem is NATO no longer has a unified position on the Ukraine war issue and Donald Trump has made European countries feel more insecure in his attempt to have a détente with Russia and confront China by unleashing an economic Cold War. When Trump threatened to withdraw US commitment for security to countries that do not spend enough on defence, Poland had little to fear due to its high defence expenditure. But it signalled that similar threat on some other pretext can come in the future. Thus, Poland has a consensus across the political divide to bolster its defence capability.
No wonder, the recent announcement by the Polish government to provide military training for all adults has wide popular support and hardly any political opposition. The election in Poland scheduled in May this year may or may not lead to a change of party in power, but the election outcome in not expected to alter Poland’s resolve to ramp up its defence capability. The country lacks strategic depth, borders Russia and Belarus and thus has embarked upon a journey to increase its current military arsenal, acquire more modern weapons and air defence equipment and maintain a strong manpower. There are, according to reports, plans of Polish acquisition of US logistic support for patriot air defence system worth $2 billion and it is justified on the ground that the “safety of Polish skies has no price.”
Poland is now the Chair of the European Union. It is seeking to build a huge defence infrastructure along the Russian and Belarus borders called the “East Shield”, and is planning to become a powerful country in NATO’s Eastern flank. It is all because the insecurity in Poland is palpable. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recently said that Russia would remain a threat as long as Vladimir Putin is in power. Poland’s Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, General Leon Komornicki drew attention to Russian building-up of a massive army in the rear and said that “If peace is not reached and the split within NATO continues, Russia will attack the Baltic states” by end of this year or early next year.
Such perceptions are grounded in Poland’s historical experiences and unsettled war in its immediate neighbourhood. Poland and the Baltic States recently withdrew from the Ottawa Convention on Landmines to safeguard their borders by laying landmines against any future
But Russian statements have also fed into such fear. Russia has witnessed that the EU and several members of NATO are not on the same page with US President Donald Trump on the Ukraine issue. Moscow has complaints against strong anti-Russian statements and recently Sergey Naryshkin remarked that “Poland and the Baltic Republics are particularly aggressive…constantly rattling their weapons” and warned that Russia would strongly retaliate if NATO threatens Russia or Belarus, but Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would be the “first to suffer.”
All these signal that European insecurity would remain even after any ceasefire agreement or even a peace deal is concluded between Russia and Ukraine. If European rearmament persists, perceived Russian threat prolongs, Russia-Ukraine peace deal becomes illusive or transitory, world will witness fierce arms race, competitive technological race, reduced incentive for economic cooperation and political stability in years to come. The insecurity on the eastern flank of Europe will breed mistrust and make the continent a deadly flashpoint.
* Chintamani Mahapatra is the Founder Chairperson, KIIPS and Editor, India Quarterly.