hankyoreh

On June 30, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump visits the GP Ouellette, the northernmost guard post in South Korea with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. (Kim Jung-hyo/Hankyoreh)

By Kim Jong-dae, visiting scholar at Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies

Since the start of the Cold War, the US has obsessed over military bases in East Asia, to the point of near absurdity. Tens of thousands of troops are stationed in Guam, the US Naval Base in Subic Bay and Clark Air Base in the Philippines, US Fleet Activities Yokosuka and Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, and Camp Humphreys and Kunsan Air Base in Korea. These are all massive military bases constructed during the Cold War. The US bases in the Philippines were shut down in the ’90s, but the remaining bases still stand strong as symbols of US power, even after the end of the Cold War. 

These bases throughout East Asia would provide critical supplies, equipment, and manpower in the event of a full-scale war. They have been collectively referred to as an “iron mountain.” The story changes in the 21st century however, when mid- to long-range missiles have become universal weapons. 

Despite the fact that a Chinese Dongfeng series of missiles could rain down on them at any time, these bases’ current missile defense systems are extremely vulnerable. If China staged an attack, these massive US bases would become the target of a massive missile strike that would produce thousands of casualties and catastrophic damage. Furthermore, the US does not have a single nuclear weapon deployed in East Asia. There are also no nuclear weapon storage facilities or any agents capable of operating nuclear weapons in a time of conflict. None of the US bases in East Asia has any intermediate-range missiles that are capable of striking China. 

During the first Donald Trump administration, the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and secured the right to station intermediate-range missiles in East Asia, but US allies were extremely resistant to stationing US missiles on their soil. US allies like South Korea and Japan rejected US missiles, and currently do not have any intermediate- to long-range missile capacity. Talk of deterring China in East Asia without nuclear weapons and missiles rings hollow.

US naval power has also been called into question. Once the US deployed its three aircraft carriers at the San Diego naval base to the Pacific, Chinese satellites would immediately pick up their location and movements. After tracking the movements of the massive carriers, China could deploy its surface-to-ship missiles, with a range of 10,000 miles, at a moment’s notice. The sheer size of a carrier does not guarantee safety, and the majority of US carriers are over 30 years old and outdated.  

It’s questionable whether these carriers would even make it to the Pacific bases. US forces in East Asia also do not have modern assets that can operate quickly and stealthily, such as uncrewed underwater vehicles, stealth carriers, and swarm drones. 

One cannot help but ask: if these bases cannot effectively deter China, why should the US continue sinking money into operating these Cold War-style bases? US Forces Korea, in particular, which is primarily ground troops, would not be very helpful in deterring China. So what is their use? 

At such a time, American media is reporting that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be restructuring the command posts for US bases around the world while reducing US troops stationed overseas. Hegseth reportedly distributed an internal memo known as the “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance” in mid-March. The memo indicated that the Department of Defense would be, in consideration of its limited resources and manpower, accepting the risks in other nations and focusing exclusively on deterring China. To achieve this aim, the memo continued, the US would be encouraging its allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific to become more self-reliant in their defense. This reflects Trump’s priority of American interests over the interests of other nations, including allies. 

Former President Joe Biden had pushed for restructuring US Forces Japan while expanding it. Now that this initiative has been stalled, the Japanese government seems to be on alert. Hegseth has not made any direct comments about US Forces Korea, but it seems clear that Washington will shift their focus from deterring North Korea to deterring China and defending Taiwan. The more serious development is that the US has unilaterally made these changes without consulting its allies first. Such unilateralism raises fundamental doubts about the US’ commitment to its allies. 

South Korea will be placed in a serious national security dilemma, where Washington demands increased funding for stationing US boots in Korea and protecting Taiwan, while Beijing pressures Seoul to not accede to US demands. For us to make it through this as a country, we need a government that puts its foot down and stays strong in the face of pressure from major powers while taking the lead over the situation in the region and plotting a path for Korea’s self-reliant survival. Korea needs to make it clear that it is not a nation that will bend to the big guys, and that it is a stakeholder in peace based on its strong presence in the region. 

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]