Is it really a surprise? Two months after contact between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin resumed, in a phone call on February 12 that was meant to initiate a negotiation process aimed at quickly leading to a ceasefire in Ukraine, the war continues, with no prospect of an end in sight.
Many political and diplomatic events have marked these two months, including a disgraceful incident in the Oval Office, on February 28, where President Trump and Vice President JD Vance harshly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Yet neither the negotiators nor the belligerent parties appear to be any closer to a ceasefire than they were when Trump entered the White House. The "carnage," that Trump has claimed to want to stop continues to rage, both on the front lines and in Ukrainian cities.
On Friday, April 11, the US president's envoy, Steve Witkoff, held a more than four-hour meeting with President Putin in Saint Petersburg. This was their third meeting, but it does not appear to have decisively advanced the process.
The Russian president's delays
The reason it has stalled is simple: All while claiming to be open to negotiations, Putin does not intend to end his war of aggression until he has brought the Ukrainians and their president to their knees. He wants to ensure Russian dominance over their country. When his aides explain that any negotiation must first address the "root causes" of the conflict, this is what they mean: The war's objective is to prevent Ukraine from being an independent, democratic country capable of defending itself and choosing its alliances.
Despite the enormous losses and destruction Russia has inflicted on them for over three years now, Ukrainians are unwilling to submit. On the front lines, their army resists. It is also the case that Russians, despite a probable lack of enthusiasm for the conflict, are not ready to rise up against Putin. Therefore, the war will go on.
Russia, operating in a wartime economy mode supported by China, produces enough arms to supply its troops, not to mention those provided by North Korea and Iran. Supplied by its Western allies, Ukraine has increasingly been producing its own arms, and demonstrates remarkable creativity in drones and combat robots. However, neither belligerent party has been capable of inflicting a decisive defeat on the other.
Will Trump, who, on his social network, urged Russia to "get moving" on the talks, get tired of the Russian president's delays? Or, perhaps, has he decided, from the start, to meet all of Putin's demands? This is the unknown factor that Europeans must deal with, though they have been deliberately excluded from the negotiation by both the Russians and Americans, despite being on the front lines.
On Friday, following a meeting of Ukraine's allies chaired by the British and German defense ministers, an additional €21 billion in military aid for Kyiv was disbursed. Indeed, the Europeans would be mistaken to wait for things to resolve by themselves. They have no choice but to continue organizing to try to ensure Ukraine's security, whether in the event of a ceasefire or of an American withdrawal. In both cases, their own security is at stake.