Iran has warned its neighbours in the Gulf with American military bases not to be involved in any potential strike — days after raising its alert level as the US increased its military presence in the region.
Iran issued notices to Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Bahrain to warn them against allowing the US use of air space or territory lest it be considered an act of hostility, an Iranian official said.
Tehran has rejected President Trump’s offer of talks to curb its nuclear programme, although secret, informal discussions are thought to have taken place over the past few weeks in Muscat, the capital of Oman.
Analysts believe that Iran, having lost its frontline offensive with the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the defeat of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, will want to cling to its nuclear programme as its last military strategy.
“Iran had wanted to extend a nuclear umbrella over its terrorist proxies as they attack Israel and moderate Sunni states. Iran will therefore want to cling to its nuclear programme as the anchor for its planned recovery and to draw out talks with the Trump administration to gain time and legitimacy for its alarming nuclear progress,” said Yaakov Lappin, an Israeli security analyst.
On Friday, Iran raised its alert level and said it was ready to deliver immediate responses in the event of an attack.
While Trump has said that he prefers to reach a deal with Iran, he holds the Islamic republic responsible for attacks by its ally, the Houthis in Yemen, on Israel and on international waterways.
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Diplomats in the Middle East believe that Trump seeks to constrain Iran with active threats but is also building political legitimacy for a potential attack. Officials are considering the possible timing of the attack after two big Israeli airstrikes in October rendered Iran’s radar stations and air defences essentially ineffectual.
The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, on his way to Washington for meetings with Trump on Monday, intends to include discussions on Iran. Israel has repeatedly stated that it is prepared to use military action to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
“All fronts are being dealt with simultaneously and in a planned order of events,” a senior Israeli security source said, addressing the US strikes in Yemen and continuing Israeli operations in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. “It’s all connected. We don’t look at it per country, per scene, but across the entire geopolitical board. We see Iran’s proxies not on an isolated basis, but as an axis of Shi’ite evil across the region.”
In Iran, there was backlash after a death threat against Trump appeared in Kayhan, a hardline Iranian newspaper, with politicians fearing the rhetoric could provide Washington with a pretext to strike their country. In its “dialogue” column over the weekend, the newspaper said “several bullets will be fired into Trump’s empty head” after the US president “threatened military attacks, sanctions [and] increasing tariffs”.
Shortly after last year’s presidential election, the US government brought charges against an Afghan national linked to an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump — an accusation Tehran described as “completely baseless”.
In recent weeks, the US has been bolstering its military forces, including deploying several nuclear-capable B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, an American-British base that is close enough to take aim at Yemen and Iran.
At least two Patriot missile defence batteries are believed to have been authorised to move to the Middle East from Asia with South Korea’s blessing, according to the Yonhap news agency. The Pac-3 missiles would defend against incoming threats, including ballistic, cruise and aircraft-carrying missiles, and are said to be being deployed in addition to America’s existing stealth bombing fleet. Last week, the Pentagon announced that the USS Carl Vinson, which is able to launch fighter jets, will arrive in the region within two weeks, joining the USS Harry S Truman carrier strike group.
Iran was a signatory to the 2015 nuclear deal with the US, the European Union, Russia and China in return for a lack of sanctions but Trump tore it up seven years ago. Since then, Iran has resumed its uranium-enrichment and missile programme with a significant stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent — a heartbeat away from the 90 per cent needed for an atomic weapon. Still, analysts estimate that Tehran will seek to avoid all-out confrontation.
“As part of Iran’s effort to buy time and avoid a strike, it could extend a tactical and deceptive willingness to cosmetically taper down its uranium-enrichment activities, without sacrificing its core nuclear infrastructure at multiple sites,” Lappin said.
In other developments, Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian teenager with US citizenship in the West Bank town of Turmus Ayya, according to officials, with Israel’s military saying it shot a “terrorist” who was throwing rocks. The 14-year-old, named Omar Mohammad Rabea, is the latest casualty of settler violence in the West Bank. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli army.
In Israel, the military reported a rare salvo of about ten projectiles fired from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Missile defence systems failed to intercept five of the missiles, with one man being injured.
