Local scholar, former CIA analyst talk on war in Ukraine

As reported by the Associated Press, this comes a little more than a month after President Donald Trump had an explosive meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and earlier this week expressed frustration with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin — the latter he later softened remarks on — as Trump wishes to negotiate a peace deal quickly.

Karen Liebert

Karen Liebert holds a Ph.D. in Russian history with a minor in modern European history from the University of Maryland. She’s taught at several universities, including Idaho State University, covering Russian History, 20th century Europe, western civilization, the Cold War, and nuclear non-proliferation.

“Historians recognize that while history does not repeat itself, that’s too simplistic, the study of past events and how they unfolded can give us some ideas about how to deal with our current issues,” Liebert said.

Liebert said one lesson to be learned from history was don’t appease an aggressor. She said it didn’t work in the instance of Adolf Hitler, who continued to go after more territory to expand Germany. She said another lesson was not to leave a combatant out of peace negotiations. She said after World War I, Germany was not part of the Versailles treaty negotiations, and it set the stage for resentment and economic hardship which caused World War II.

Liebert said U.S. intelligence sources currently estimate Russia is losing about 1,000 men per day and only claimed 1% more of Ukrainian territory in 2024. Additionally, she said Ukraine now has the largest army in Europe with about 900,000 soldiers. She said Russia may have up to 1.2 million soldiers, reflecting a much larger population, but many are stationed away from the fighting.

Liebert said another pattern of note from history was Russia’s continued behavior to break treaties or ceasefires.

“The Russian invasion of 2014 was a direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum by Russia,” Liebert said. “But the only immediate response from the U.S. and U.K. were some weak sanctions and verbal condemnation.”

“(Zelenskyy) has documented 25 violations of a ceasefire agreements between 2014 and 2022, a list which he has presented to the Trump administration just a few weeks ago,” Liebert said.

Liebert said in order for the Russo-Ukrainian War to successfully end, a ceasefire will need to occur followed by an armistice to include security guarantees that fighting will not start again.

“Ending this war is going to be complicated and take time,” Liebert said. “There are many issues to be resolved. Of course, the killing and maiming should stop with a ceasefire, but that’s only the first step. A ceasefire is not a peace deal.”

Liebert said to end the war, countries will also need to address the occupied parts of Ukraine, thousands of prisoners of war, more than 20,0000 Ukrainian children that were taken to Russia, sanctions on Russian businesses, and billions of dollars of rebuilding that Ukraine will need to do.

“That armistice would have to be supervised by some international group, a part of either Ukraine or Russia, with military capabilities and the willingness to use them in case fighting breaks out again,” Liebert said.

“The U.S. has said it’s unwilling to do that, so the peacekeeping force will have to come from others,” Liebert said.

Liebert said there are some promising signs of this, including U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s idea for a “coalition of the willing,” or what French President Emmanuel Macron has called a “reassurance force.” Liebert said this will still be a big challenge, particularly as European countries have scaled back the sizes of armies since the Cold War.

“This might be the biggest hurdle for peace as the U.S. is refusing to provide the guarantee,” Liebert said. “And let’s be clear, Russia is the aggressor here.”

Liebert said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, could also potentially enforce an armistice, though Liebert said she has some doubt that NATO would step up.

“I actually prefer some other security guarantees,” Liebert said. “The best would be to arm Ukraine so it could defend itself.”

Toward the conclusion of her talk, Liebert said Ukraine will continue to resist Russia. European countries seem to recognize the gravity of the situation unfolding, but we are at a “crossroads” as the U.S. is unwilling to focus on European security.

“Expansionist Russia is not in the United States’ interest,” Liebert said. “Russia is not and will not be an ally of the U.S., especially in a world where the big powers think they can rule. We need to help Europe resist expansionist Tyranny of Russia.”

Jeff Carr

Jeff Carr, born and raised in Idaho Falls, is the executive director of the Museum of Idaho. Carr was formerly an analyst for the CIA, authoring numerous presidential briefings for two different administrations on Russian goals and politics, Russia-Ukraine relations and other topics.

He holds a master’s degree from Stanford University in Russian, east European, and Eurasian studies, and has spent years living, working and traveling throughout the region.

“We are here again because something massive has changed — the United States of America,” Carr said at the beginning of his talk.

Carr said Americans used to largely agree on certain basic tenets of U.S. foreign policy relations with Russia but those are now being called into question.

“Vladmir Putin, having failed to achieve his primary goals in Ukraine militarily, probably now sees an opportunity to achieve those same goals through negotiations with Donald Trump,” Carr said.

Carr said if Putin is allowed to achieve his goals, it will weaken the global system that has kept the U.S. “the world’s most powerful country since World War II.”

Carr said Putin is complicated, but he thinks there are a few useful ways to think of the Russian president. Carr said Putin’s ultimate goal is to remain in power. He said Putin also wishes to project his power throughout the world, which “he appears to view as Russia’s destiny and the best way to restore national pride.”

Carr said Putin idealizes his own childhood when the Soviet Union, under Nikita Khrushchev, controlled most of Eurasia and influenced much of global politics.

“Foreign spy and military adventures are a lot more interesting to him than running a cold, gray country with a depressed populace and dead-end economy,” Carr said.

Carr said Russia’s military actions against Ukraine were entirely unprovoked, and was a calculated move to neutralize a slowly growing natural danger of a democratic Ukraine.

“There’s nothing that makes him look worse at home than when struggling Russians look over the border to see their sisters, their cousins, their college roommates, their Slavic buddies with whom they have so much in common, embracing democracy and thriving as part of a global economy not dependent on Russia,” Carr said.

However, Carr said Putin’s plans have been largely unsuccessful. He said for only having gained 11% of Ukraine, Putin has made long-term security and economic prospects much worse.

Carr said as Russia has lost around 2 million people from casualties and people fleeing the country, the country has resorted to paying individuals more than the average Russian annual salary so they will enlist in the war, as well as filling battalions with convicts who are granted amnesty if they return home alive

Carr said Putin has also shifted the entire economy toward the war effort, and the war isn’t sustainable. He said inflation and soaring consumer prices have also fatigued Russian citizens.

“(Putin) is stuck in a quagmire of his own creation — the war he badly wants and needs personally, even as it’s killing his country,” Carr said. “He’s in a tough spot and things are getting worse. But suddenly out of the darkness comes a lifesaving miracle for Putin. Donald Trump becomes president of the United States.”

Carr said Trump has personal business interests in Russia, distrusts his own experts, and hates Zelenskyy. He said Putin knows Trump is eager to score an apparent victory through some sort of deal and likely sees this as a way to achieve his goals.

“Giving Putin what he wants would in fact make the world much less safe, including for Americans, and is likely to yield essentially no benefits for the U.S.,” Carr said.

“Lots of innocent people are dying ... allowing Putin to get away with invading, killing, and taking a chunk of another sovereign nation would send an enormous signal to Putin and the rest of the world,” Carr said.

Carr said this would signal that the U.S. is abandoning rules-based international order, which was made in the U.S.’s image for how countries have civil dealings with each other through norms and agreements.

“The U.S. is the most powerful country in the world today in large part because of the rules-based international order that has existed since WWII,” Carr said. “We set up this order. It was us.”

Carr recognized that European allies should be, by NATO regulations, contributing more. But he said the alliances still greatly benefit security and industry interests of the U.S.

Carr said a successful ceasefire would likely work in Ukraine’s favor, but there would need to be real, enforceable penalties of violating ceasefires.

“Trump may be open just to claim victory by publicly signing any sort of agreement and relying on his supporters to turn a blind eye to actual long-term effects,” Carr said. “Because whether it’s in four weeks or four years, allowing Putin to keep any of the bounties of his bloodshed would almost certainly lead to more and more of the same.”