The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, a high-risk deal with many question marks

The Black Sea ceasefire was on the verge of collapse after three days of negotiations in Saudi Arabia. Until the eleventh hour, it was unclear whether the agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States would be signed. It was a last-ditch negotiating effort by the White House that on Tuesday produced Russia’s green light for an upcoming cessation of maritime hostilities. Washington took the plunge, ignoring Ukraine’s objections, by pledging to the Kremlin to “facilitate the recovery” of Russian agricultural exports on the international market, severely limited by tariffs and sanctions imposed by Ukraine’s Western allies.

The final episode of the talks, in Riyadh, was a cliffhanger. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had stated on Tuesday afternoon that a ceasefire in the Black Sea could not materialize because Ukraine did not commit to “guaranteeing” Russian interests. Lavrov did not specify what “guarantees” he was referring to. He did offer some clues, recalling that, according to the Kremlin’s version of events, Kyiv had breached the clauses proposed by Turkey in the 2022 grain agreement. This pact remained in effect for one year, from 2022 to 2023. It was made possible thanks to the mediation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

In 2022, maritime corridors were established for merchant ships exporting grain and other Ukrainian agricultural products. Russian teams inspected the ships’ cargo to ensure that the contents carried met the requirements specified in the treaty. The agreement now signed with Washington does not specify this, but the Kremlin has insisted on restoring these inspections.

Putin did not renew that agreement, arguing that Europe and the U.S. did not reciprocate the deal by easing sanctions on Russian agricultural exports and that Ukraine had not ceased its attacks on the Russian fleet off the Crimean Peninsula. Russia, for its part, also bombed Ukrainian civilian ports during the period of the agreement.

Lavrov wasn’t lying. Volodymyr Zelenskiy acknowledged the main obstacle at a press conference on Tuesday: his government was opposed to lifting trade restrictions on Russian maritime agricultural and fertilizer exports. These products are limited by tariffs and sanctions imposed by the West following the invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions, according to the Ukrainian president, must remain in place because they serve as leverage for future peace negotiations.

Russian conditions

Fox reported that White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz made a last-minute call to Moscow on Tuesday to issue the statement confirming Russia’s acceptance of the deal. “The United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions,” the document signed with Washington states.

The Kremlin has further specified what is needed to begin implementing the agreement: the first step is to lift sanctions on major Russian banking institutions specializing in international agricultural transactions, the Kremlin says. The Black Sea Institute, a Ukrainian center for the study of merchant traffic and international law in the Black Sea, published a report this March in which it predicted that a truce would lead to improved export conditions for Russia, and that the possible next step “is the lifting of sanctions against Russian companies that export crude oil.” It remains to be seen what the European Union, which plays a decisive role in the sanctions regime on the invader’s economy, will decide.

The Black Sea is of fundamental economic importance to both Russia and Ukraine. Their maritime exports to Asia and the Mediterranean depart from there. But for Ukraine, it’s even more: it’s a matter of survival, because the ports of Odesa Province are its only maritime outlet to the international market. Its maritime capacity has been severely limited by Russia’s occupation of its ports on the Sea of Azov.

But Ukraine has turned necessity into a virtue, especially since 2023, when the grain agreement was broken. What it achieved was one of Ukraine’s great strategic victories in the war: Ukrainian special forces wreaked havoc with their maritime and air drones against the Russian fleet, forcing its vessels to withdraw to the eastern waters of the Black Sea. This allowed Ukraine to resume maritime traffic along the coastline, first in Odessa province and then accessing the sovereign waters of NATO countries, Romania, Bulgaria, and finally, Turkey.

Russia has drastically limited the space its ships can navigate in the Black Sea. Few vessels expose themselves to open water, and they do so only in rapid-fire operations, primarily to fire Kalibr cruise missiles, which hit targets on Ukrainian soil hundreds of kilometers away. The statement signed by the U.S. with Russia does not specify whether the use of the Kalibrs would break the ceasefire. The document only states that “The United States and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” The bilateral agreement with Ukraine establishes the same.

Military objectives

Dmitro Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, mentioned the threat posed by the Kalibrs on Radio Svoboda on Monday and wondered if the ceasefire also meant that the Russian fleet's missiles and drones in the Crimean peninsula, illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, could not be used either. The same question could arise for the invader: Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet's assets on land be legitimate targets? The most important thing for Ukraine, according to Pletenchuk, is that the ports of Odessa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv not be targeted by further attacks.

Ukraine, like Russia, has put forward its conditions beyond the document agreed upon with the U.S. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has requested new meetings to finalize details of the maritime truce. He stressed that Kyiv will consider it a violation of the deal if Russian warships sail beyond the eastern part of the Black Sea, that is, outside Russian territorial waters. Umerov does not mention Crimean ports and waters, but Ukraine has been demanding that they leave the peninsula since its annexation in 2014, something that currently seems impossible.

Suspicions about the unrestricted movement of Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea aren’t limited to Ukraine. Bulgaria and Romania have expressed their suspicions about any possible agreements between Russia and the U.S. through the Financial Times, citing anonymous sources.

The Black Sea has taken center stage during the war due to its “high militarization” but also due to its “considerable commercial and geopolitical weight” in the European Union’s enlargement process, according to a March report by the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS). This Baltic think tank warns of the dominance Russia seeks to establish in this important space for trade with Asia, and the urgent need for the European Union to respond.

The United Kingdom and France's plan to secure a possible peace agreement also includes the deployment of European warships and aircraft to the Black Sea. In an analysis published this March, the American think tank Atlantic Council echoed this sentiment: "Even if a peace agreement is reached, the Black Sea region will remain a contested, militarized, and unstable space." "Russia frequently launches hybrid warfare attacks against its neighbors, and a peace pact will not restrict the Kremlin from continuing to interfere in these areas," writes Arnold C. Dupuy of the Atlantic Council.

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