Hegseth ‘disestablishing’ Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon’s strategic analysis specialists
Hegseth ‘disestablishing’ Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon’s strategic analysis specialists by Valerie Insinna and Aaron Mehta is published by Breaking Defense.
A March 13 memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, obtained by Breaking Defense, orders all employees of the Office of Net Assessment reassigned to different roles and cancels related contracts.
“WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is “disestablishing” the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, a key office responsible for high-level strategic analysis, according to a memo obtained by Breaking Defense.
The memo, dated today and signed by Hegseth, directs the Pentagon’s Performance Improvement Officer and Director of Administration and Management to reassign all civilian employees to other “mission critical positions” inside the department, while military personnel will return to their service to receive new billets.”
Read the full piece for more on this developing story.
Below is the official statement from the U.S. Government:
Attributed to Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell:
As part of the Department’s ongoing commitment to strengthening our national defense, the Secretary of Defense has directed the disestablishment of the Office of Net Assessment (ONA) and the development of a plan to rebuild it in alignment with the Department’s strategic priorities. This decision ensures that our resources are focused on the most pressing national security challenges while maintaining accountability and efficiency.
All ONA personnel will be reassigned to mission-critical roles within the Department, and statutory requirements will continue to be met without disruption. The Department remains committed to conducting rigorous, forward-looking strategic assessments that directly inform defense planning and decision-making.
We will provide further updates as we implement this transition.
Here is a New York Times article on the same subject, though it is behind a paywall.
Here’s a short synopsis of the New York Times article:
The Office of Net Assessment (ONA), a discreet but highly influential Pentagon think tank, has been ordered to shut down by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. For over five decades, ONA played a crucial role in long-term strategic planning, helping the Pentagon anticipate emerging threats and shape future warfighting concepts.
Founded by Andy Marshall, ONA was instrumental in developing Cold War strategies, innovative military concepts like Air-Sea Battle, and forecasting global power shifts. Despite its modest budget ($10–$20 million annually), its classified assessments and war games heavily influenced how the U.S. military prepared for great power competition, particularly with China.
The Debate: A Necessary Reform or Strategic Blind Spot?
The decision to close ONA has sparked divided reactions within the national security community.
Supporters of the decision argue that ONA had become inefficient, opaque, and disconnected from real-world military needs—focusing too much on distant, theoretical threats while ignoring the wars the U.S. was actually fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Critics like Senator Charles Grassley labeled it a wasteful bureaucratic relic that lacked oversight.
Opponents warn that eliminating ONA at a time of growing geopolitical tension with China and Russia is a dangerous mistake. Experts like Thomas Mahnken (CSBA) argue that shutting down a group dedicated to long-term strategic competition risks undermining the Pentagon’s ability to prepare for future conflicts. Senator Jack Reed called the move “shortsighted”, suggesting it weakens U.S. readiness.
The Pentagon has suggested that ONA will be restructured and reopened with a new focus on the “most pressing national security challenges.” However, it remains unclear how its new mission will differ from its original purpose—or whether its work will continue at all.
