On February 1, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will land in Panama City for his first stop on a six-day trip to four Central American nations and the Dominican Republic. This trip is yet another sign that the Trump administration will make the Americas a top focus. That is needed and will be welcome by countries in the region that have long yearned for such high-level attention on the Western Hemisphere.
In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece published on January 30 titled “An Americas First Foreign Policy,” Rubio summed up the purpose of the trip: “El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and the Dominican Republic—the countries I will visit on this trip—all stand to benefit tremendously from greater cooperation with the U.S.” He went on to note that “Making America great again also means helping our neighbors achieve greatness.” One of this essay’s authors has just returned from Panama’s capital, where there was a palpable excitement among Panamanians that the US secretary of state is making their country his first foreign stop.
Rubio’s full trip includes all countries party to the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement, with two notable exceptions. The secretary will skip Nicaragua, which is run by the dictator Daniel Ortega, and Honduras, which is governed by a president who is in her last year in office and has decided to cast her lot with Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.
In all the countries Rubio is visiting, the secretary will likely seek to reinforce the United States’ willingness to continue working with the region on migration, security, and economic cooperation. In all five countries, Rubio will find pragmatic leaders who recognize the importance of a prosperous and safe hemisphere for all. But each stop will also have unique aspects—both opportunities and sticking points—based on the specifics of each country.
Stop 1: Panama
Rubio and his Panamanian counterparts will have an ambitious agenda to deliver on US President Donald Trump’s inaugural address statement that the United States is “taking back the canal.” The operation of container ports by a China-based company at each end of the canal will be top item for discussion. So, too, will be the bridge being built over the canal and the tunnel underneath it for Panama City’s subway—both being constructed by China-based companies. Panama didn’t recognize China until 2017, when it switched relations from Taiwan, and since then ties have grown quickly, as have questions on the contracts agreed to with China-based companies. Another issue on the agenda will be the fees set by the Panama Canal Authority and items such as maintenance of the watershed to ensure correct water levels. Here, there’s an opportunity for the United States to partner with Panama on much-needed infrastructure upgrades in water management
With a strongly pro-US government led by President José Raúl Mulino, the visit should be a positive one as many areas of common interest align—even though Mulino reacted swiftly to Trump’s statements on the canal, saying he will not negotiate its sovereignty. Both countries also share a deep interest in stopping unauthorized migration coming through the Darién Gap and in clamping down on the criminal groups—now designated as foreign terrorist organizations by Trump—that profit off selling these illegal journeys to the United States. Expect further discussions on ways to further coordinate migration-related efforts.
Stop 2: El Salvador
Just a decade ago, San Salvador was one of the most dangerous cities in the world. As we both witnessed a couple weeks ago when walking in San Salvador’s historic downtown, El Salvador has seen a tremendous transformation in public safety. Since 2019, President Nayib Bukele has undertaken an unapologetic approach to dismantling organized crime. Rubio’s visit will reinforce the bilateral commitment to security cooperation. Bukele is personally close to the current US administration, but the affinities do not guarantee a tension-free relationship over the next four years.
Another important issue on the Rubio-Bukele agenda is migration. The Trump administration previously negotiated a “Safe Third Country” agreement with El Salvador, which allows the United States to send non-Salvadorans back to El Salvador. This visit from the secretary will surely include discussions on reviving and expanding that framework, which was ended by the Biden administration.
Stop 3: Costa Rica
Costa Rica has long been a stable, democratic partner of the United States, but the country has recently grappled with rising levels of citizen insecurity due to organized crime. The country also faces significant regional challenges, including the growing threat posed by Nicaragua’s Ortega regime—with lots of Russian and Chinese security and military presence—and increasing migration pressures from Nicaraguans in search of a better life. Costa Rica has been impacted by the destabilizing actions of the Ortega regime, which has driven waves of refugees into Costa Rican territory.
Rubio’s meeting with Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves could focus on strengthening security ties (including cybersecurity) and reinforcing Costa Rica’s role as an important partner in countering China’s economic influence in the region. Additionally, Rubio will have an opportunity to double down on existing opportunities for economic cooperation, particularly in advanced manufacturing, a sector in which Costa Rica has emerged as a regional leader through the CHIPS Act.
Stop 4: Guatemala
Since taking office in January 2024, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo has shown a willingness to work closely with the United States on migration enforcement and economic development. Rubio will meet with Arévalo to discuss ways to deepen this cooperation and ensure that Guatemala remains a strong US partner in the region. Migration will be a top issue, with Guatemala’s continued role in receiving deportation flights. As with neighboring countries, the Trump administration has in the past prioritized agreements that allow for the expedited return of migrants. The agenda will also likely cover economic opportunities, with a particular focus on integrating Guatemala more closely into US supply chains through nearshoring efforts.
But most importantly, Guatemala is the largest of the seven countries in the Western Hemisphere (of twelve globally) that continue to diplomatically recognize Taiwan. The Guatemalan government also shares the administration’s support for Ukraine and Israel. The Taiwan question is perhaps the strongest point of alignment with the United States right now, with Arévalo focused on how to deepen economic ties with Taiwan to ensure the relationship continues beyond his mandate. Expect Rubio and Arévalo to discuss ways in which the United States can more fully support such efforts.
Stop 5: Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is much more than just pristine coastlines. President Luis Abinader and his government have transformed the country with a focus on rule of law, transparency, and strong democratic institutions. The Dominican Republic is focused on becoming a nearshoring destination and taking steps to attract US companies, with US foreign direct investment increasing by 40 percent since 2019 as the country has become an important player in the US supply of medical devices. As Rubio wrote in the Wall Street Journal: “Relocating our critical supply chains to the Western Hemisphere would clear a path for our neighbors’ economic growth and safeguard Americans’ own economic security.” Prioritizing nearshoring is in the United States’ economic security interest, and it is why the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center has a working group dedicated to moving this forward with a focus on all five countries in the Rubio itinerary.
The Dominican Republic also shares an island with Haiti. And as Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone noted in his press briefing to preview the trip, the Dominican Republic “has also been the country most affected by the challenges and, frankly, the vacuum created by the previous administration in Haiti which has led to, frankly, chaos in Haiti.”
In addition, the Dominican Republic will host the Summit of the Americas later this year—a gathering of regional heads of state to collectively tackle priorities that require collective action. Few threats are as severe and require as much constant cooperation as battling the scourge of violence and insecurity of transnational criminal organizations. Rubio’s visit should be an opportunity to discuss such shared priorities as part of the summit. Hopefully, it will also advance US participation in the summit at the highest diplomatic level.
Jason Marczak is vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
María Fernanda Bozmoski is the director of impact and operations and lead for Central America at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Further reading
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Image: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio looks on as he meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi at the State Department in Washington, US, January 21, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo